Policy Brief

Escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran pose significant risks to global energy markets and maritime trade, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors. Sustained disruptions to traffic through the Strait could drive sharp increases in oil, fertilizer, and shipping costs, with cascading effects across global supply chains.

For Niger, the potential implications are significant. As a landlocked and import-dependent economy, Niger is highly exposed to rising import costs for food, refined fuel, fertilizers, medicines, and capital goods. Higher global prices and shipping costs could increase inflation, raise transport and production costs, and worsen food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable households.

At the same time, Niger’s recent emergence as a crude oil exporter could provide a partial offset. Higher global oil prices may boost export revenues and improve the trade balance. However, these gains could be partly offset by rising import costs and increased fiscal pressures linked to subsidies, social protection needs, and higher external debt servicing if global financial conditions tighten.

Beyond trade effects, the war could also affect Niger through reduced development financing. Overall, the situation may create a “scissors effect” for the Nigerien economy: rising oil revenues on one side and increasing domestic costs and fiscal pressures on the other.

This brief provides a preliminary assessment of the potential impacts in the event of prolonged disruptions to maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz. The scale of these effects will depend on the duration and severity of the crisis and will be updated as new economic data become available.

Prepared by Yeboua Kouassi, Development Coordinator Officer (Economist), Niger March 2026